The global pandemic made it difficult in 2020 to predict future buying behavior — and in 2021, COVID-19’s effects only blurred that vision further. Commissioned by ShoppingTomorrow, research agency GfK conducted a study with 1,014 Dutch consumers to explore what the future of buying behavior may look like.
The pandemic continued to impact consumer behavior at the start of the year. With non-essential stores closed, online shopping increased significantly — a trend expected to continue in the years ahead. A third of respondents expect to spend most of their money online in the coming year on computers and accessories, likely due to hybrid working becoming the norm. In contrast, spending on DIY/gardening and home & living is expected to decrease — categories that thrived during lockdown in 2020. By 2026, it’s estimated that 40% of all purchases will be online, especially in categories such as sports & recreation, health & beauty, and food.
About 13% of all online purchases in 2026 are expected to be cross-border — from foreign webshops. Most cross-border purchases will likely be household appliances and electronics. However, half of all consumers still prefer to buy from Dutch or European webshops over international giants like Amazon, even if local prices are higher. That said, 75% of respondents believe cross-border e-commerce will grow over the next five years, thanks to the personalized shopping experience that e-commerce and data technology make possible. Yet at the same time, consumers still value the freedom to make unguided choices and often express concern about the use of personal data.
During the pandemic, consumers increasingly researched products online. Reviews and product information played a major role, while the actual purchase often still happened in-store. Others preferred personal advice in-store and made the purchase online afterward. Interestingly, 40% of consumers say they don’t want to be approached while browsing a webshop. Many accept data collection as a necessary evil, with fewer than 10% seeing it as a benefit. Most remain cautious about sharing personal information — they want to trust a webshop before creating an account. Once trust is established, personalized experiences are welcomed — and for 53%, they’re even a reason to return.
The GfK study also revealed that one-third of purchases made during the pandemic were of higher emotional or monetary value — such as a new car or home lighting. These choices reflect a subconscious need to reaffirm identity during a time when mortality was top of mind. Luxury purchases, according to Unravel Research, serve as expressions of identity. Consumers who didn’t change their buying behavior during the pandemic still expect to make more high-value purchases in the future. And increasingly, these purchases take place on marketplaces. In fact, 69% of consumers are aware that many platforms (like bol.com or Zalando) are intermediaries for third-party sellers — and 34% say they’ve returned to that third-party seller’s own webshop for follow-up purchases. Marketplaces are here to stay — but that doesn’t mean individual webshops are obsolete.
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